2017 OCT 22: Recon aériennes par les japonais pour 25W(LAN)

Les japonais ont effectué des reconnaissances aériennes le 20 qui selon le JTWC ont confirmé l'estimation de super typhon avec des mesures qui correspondent à 125/130noeuds sur 1mn.

Sinon au cours des dernières heures on a eu une petite embellie au niveau de la signature sat. Mais cela ne devrait pas durer et "UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates" est à présent défavorable.
Les observations des îles Ryukyu confirment que les 35/45noeuds s'étendent très très loin du centre.

Mes commentaires sur la page FB du JTWC à 21TU
https://www.facebook.com/groups/175444409191833/
NOTE: the super typhoon intensity was validated yesterday by aircraft reconnaissances carried out by Japan with measurements corresponding to an intensity of 125/130knots(1mn).

25W(LAN) is analysed as a 135knots(250k/h) super typhoon with a 70km round eye feature.
Based on recent Dvorak analyses(and ADT) the estimated intensity has been increased slightly once again. Satcon at 1639Z was at 130knots and at 121knots at 1824Z.
This system is still tapping into a very impressive poleward outflow to the NNE into the mid-latitudes westerlies currently over Japan.
This new intensity peak shoud be very short-lived though. Environment should become rapidly unfavourable with increasing vertical wind shear and subsidence(developing trough over the East China Sea) increasingly encroaching upon the area.
How much the system's core will manage to be shielded from it remains questionable. My guess is that the satellite signature should markedly deteriorate next 24h.
The "UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates" still neutral at 12Z is now unfavourable at 18Z.
Surface observations from the Ryukyu islands confirm the extensive radius of 35/45knots winds with this very large system.
The system has started its extratropical transition which is forecast to be complete near 24h.
Confidence in the forecast is high.
Prog reasoning and 3 hourly sat fixes are to be found in the comments of this message.