Sujet: 2018 JAN 15: 06S(BERGUITTA) : sat, hte réso,07hloc
Désolé je n'ai pas le temps de traduire ce que j'ai écrit mais c'est basique.
A plus.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/175444409191833/
2018 JAN 15 0430UTC
NB: a band of intense convection is just to the north of Rodrigues island.
2018 JAN 15 0414UTC SOUTH INDIAN
TC 06S(BERGUITTA)
The high resolution sat pictures depict an increasingly well-organised system.
An eye feature(warm spot) is already seen on the infra-red.
Notice how far the outer bands extend from the core of this system.
Notice the increasingly symmetrical signature of this system.
With low vertical wind shear, sea surface temps supportive enough, dual outflow channels this system(small-size of the core and slow-moving) does appear to benefit from very favourable conditions to intensify very significantly next 48hours.
The HWRF model is very aggressive as far as the intensity forecast is concerned.
We are watching this system very closely.
Next complete bulletin(Warning 11) from the JTWC will be available near 15/09UTC on this page.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/175444409191833/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
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